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Where It’s At
New Homes are where it’s at.
By ‘it,’ we mean inventory.
Given low supply of existing homes, home buyers have figured out that new homes offer an effective place to find homes for sale.
Here are the stats…
Inventory of existing homes is down 7.7% year over year. And, last year’s inventory was historically low.
Meanwhile, sales of new homes rose 4.4%. This increase was much more than most analysts expected.
New Homes are where it is at.
New Opportunity
One of the many opportunities for buyers today is new construction.
In Northern Colorado, just under 25% of all available homes for sale are brand new homes.
That percentage is roughly 50% more than normal.
Buyers who are looking for a greater selection can consider new homes.
New homes offer obvious advantages like trendy finishes and new appliances.
They also often offer attractive incentives like lower mortgage rates.
So, in a time when it feels like there is less to choose from, new homes are a great option.
More New
Nationally, new home inventory as a percentage of the total inventory just hit a record high. 26% of all properties currently available for sale are brand new homes.
To put this in perspective, in 2018 it was 14%. From 2000 to 2008 it bounced between 10% and 15%
Locally, we notice even higher numbers.
In Larimer County, 29% of all inventory is brand new. In Weld County, it is a whopping 35%.
The reason why the percentage is high is not so much because of a surge in new construction, but because the amount of re-sale properties listed for sale is so low.
The Front Range has an under-supplied market, especially when it comes to re-sale properties.
Like 1993
Here’s a trivia question…
The number of new, single-family homes completed in 2022 will most closely resemble which prior year?
If you guessed 1993, you are correct.
Yes, the number of homes built and completed this year is no more than the number from 30 years ago.
In 2022, there will be just over 1 million single family homes constructed in the U.S. which is the same as 1993.
This is much more than the bottom of construction in 2011 which saw just under 500,000 new homes built.
But it is also much less than the top of 2006 which had almost 1.7 million.
Limited new home construction today is preventing anything close to a glut of inventory on the market which, in turn, insulates us from any sort of major price correction.
Top Three
Here are the top three reasons why prices are unlikely to crash even though the market has cooled off:
- Inventory – Ultimately, prices are driven by supply and demand. Although supply has increased, it still remains relatively low with less than two months’ supply in most areas.
- New Homes – New home construction still lags behind the demand stemming from population growth. New home starts today are roughly 2/3 of what they were in 2005.
- Credit – Home buyers today are highly qualified which protects the market from a glut of ‘distressed’ properties hitting the market in an economic downturn. The average credit score of buyers is now 776 which, by definition, is ‘excellent.’ Only 2% of loans today are given to buyers with scores under 640 whereas in 2001 25% of buyers had that low of a score.
New Construction: Why Work with a Buyer’s Agent?
- Negotiate on your behalf
- Clarify what is included in the base price
- Help you navigate the purchase amidst rising building costs
- Help you obtain the best financing available
- Provide guidance with regard to builder’s warranties and home inspections
Traditionally, sellers are responsible for paying real estate agent fees. In the case of new construction homes, the builder will likely cover all or most of the agent’s commission. You may be able to work with a real estate professional at no cost to you.
For additional inquiries, please contact our office or your Windermere real estate agent directly.
Townhome Surge
Townhome construction has surged in the last 12 months. This is welcome news for first-time buyers who benefit from the lower prices that multi-family product tends to provide.
According to the National Association of Home Builders, townhome construction has jumped up 28% compared to the previous year.
Townhomes now represent 13% of all new residential construction starts.
Charming Ranch!
Welcome home to this 2019 Windmill home, providing the perfect opportunity to own new construction without the wait just in time for the holidays and new year! 846 South Prairie Drive is a welcoming ranch. The Keystone model features a covered front porch, an open floor plan, main floor laundry and plenty of storage. The full unfinished basement and back yard allows you to move right in and add your own creative touch with endless opportunity! Unlike new construction, appliances and window coverings are included, including washer and dryer. Within walking distance to multiple parks, walking trails and a fishing pond and just minutes away from historic downtown Milliken, this is an opportunity you don’t want to miss especially at this PRICE! Contact Meaghan Nicholl at (970) 497-9045 for your private showing for more information or click the link below for more details.
New Home Surge
Sales of new homes have jumped to their highest levels in 14 years.
The annualized rate of single-family new construction homes is now at 901,000 according to the new Census Bureau report.
This means that across the U.S., at the current pace of sales, there will be almost 1,000,000 new homes built and sold over the next 12 months.
This pace is 36% higher than one year ago and the highest it has been since the end of 2006.
Given the low inventory levels of previously-owned homes that most of the Country is experiencing, this uptick in new home activity is welcome news.
Why No Crash
This week we hosted our clients and friends for a special online event with our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.
Matthew talked about a variety of topics that are on people’s mind right now including home values.
Matthew sees no evidence that home values will crash and actually sees signs that they may rise this year nationally.
Here’s why he says this:
- Mortgage rates will remain under 3.5% for the rest of the year so there won’t be any interest-rate pressure on prices
- Inventory, which was already at record-lows, will drop even further keeping the supply levels far below normal
- New home construction will continue to be under-supplied and will be nothing like the over-supplied glut of inventory that we saw in 2008
- The vast majority of employees being laid off and furloughed are renters
- Homeowners have a tremendous amount of equity in their homes right now compared to 2008 which will prevent an influx of short sales and foreclosures
If you would like to receive a recording of the webinar we would be happy to send it to you. Feel free to reach out and ask for the link.
