Housing Math

It’s interesting to look at what population growth means for housing.

 

On average, along the Front Range, 2.5 people live in each housing unit.

 

What that means is 4 housing units are needed for every 10 people who live here.

 

So, for every 1000 new people moving to our area, 400 new housing units are required.

 

The population of Metro Denver is just under 3,000,000 and the population of Northern Colorado is just over 650,000.

 

Assuming the Front Range grows in population at 2% per year, that means 60,000 new people in Metro Denver and 13,000 new people in Northern Colorado each year.

 

To house those people, 24,000 new housing units need to be built per year in Metro Denver and 5,200 in Northern Colorado

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Posted on July 17, 2020 at 6:27 pm
Windermere Windsor | Category: Blog, Fun Facts, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

More Homes Needed

The market is in short supply.

 

More homes are needed to fulfill the need to buyer demand.

 

Compared to exactly one year ago, the supply of homes is down:

  • 32.6% in Metro Denver
  • 25.1% in Northern Colorado

An interesting and useful measurement we track is months of inventory.  This stat tells how long it would take to sell all of the homes currently for sale at the current pace of sales.

Of course, months of supply can vary greatly by price range and location.  However, this stat does a good job of explaining the overall state of the market.

Specifically, months of supply tells us if the market is in balance.

A ‘balanced’ market is when there is 4 to 6 months of supply.  A buyers market occurs when the stat is higher than this range.  A sellers market occurs when it is lower.

The months of supply looks like this in our market:

  • 1.0 months in Metro Denver
  • 1.3 months in Northern Colorado

So, the market overall is significantly under-supplied and more homes are needed to meet demand.

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Posted on July 10, 2020 at 7:44 pm
Windermere Windsor | Category: Blog, Fun Facts, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Caught Up

We’ve been waiting for June to catch up.  It finally happened (almost).

 

Back in April, real estate activity was significantly limited and the showing of property was restricted which caused the number of closed properties in May and early June to be much lower than last year.

 

Bottom line, fewer properties going under contract in April caused fewer closings 30 to 45 days later.

 

Closed properties in May were down compared to 2019 by 44% in Northern Colorado and 43% in Metro Denver.

 

Then activity jumped significantly in May.  The number of properties going under contract was way up compared to last year.

 

We’ve been wondering when we would see this sales activity reflected in the number of closed properties.

 

Well, it finally happened (almost).

 

The number of closings so far in June compared to the same time period through June of 2019 is only down 1.8% in Northern Colorado and 1.6% in Metro Denver.

 

In both markets, there are only a handful of closings separating activity in June 2020 versus June 2019.

 

By the end of the month, when all the transactions are tallied up, we expect that June of this year will out pace June of last year in terms of number of transactions.

 

This is significant not only because of COVID-19, but also because of the reduced inventory compared to last year.  Quite simply, there are fewer homes to buy.

 

All of this speaks to the health and resiliency of the Front Range market.

iStock-843435204.jpg

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Posted on June 26, 2020 at 3:16 pm
Windermere Windsor | Category: Blog, Fun Facts, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Tight Inventory

The numbers that we find to be most interesting right now are all related to inventory.

 

Long story short, inventory is tight.

 

It was already tight pre-coronavirus and now it’s even tighter.

 

Here are the numbers.

 

Active properties for sale versus one year ago are down:

  • 11% in Larimer County
  • 20% in Weld County
  • 26% in Metro Denver

 

This low inventory is one of several reasons that prices are generally still up across the Front Range.

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Posted on June 12, 2020 at 2:52 pm
Windermere Windsor | Category: Blog, Fun Facts, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

What the Numbers Say

April represents the first time we can look at the impact of COVID-19 on a full month of real estate activity.

To no one’s surprise, activity in April in terms of closings and new contracts did slow significantly.

Much of this slowing was caused by in person showings not being allowed for most of the month.

(showings are now allowed again by following Safe Showings protocols)

Here’s what the numbers say…

Closed transactions were down compared to April 2019

  • 26% in Northern Colorado (Larimer & Weld)
  • 27% in Metro Denver

New written purchase agreements were down compared to April 2020

  • 48% in Northern Colorado
  • 44% in Metro Denver

So, while activity did slow, there was nothing resembling a “screeching halt” that took place.

While the way property is shown has certainly changed, the market is still very active and we expect activity to increase even more with showings now being allowed again.

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Posted on May 8, 2020 at 2:56 pm
Windermere Windsor | Category: Fun Facts, Market News, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Job News

There is an abundance of great news when it comes to employment in Colorado.

The unemployment rate is incredibly low at 2.7% which is almost a full percentage point lower than the U.S. average.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Metro Denver added 28,300 jobs over the last year which ranks 15th out of all metropolitan areas nation-wide, many of which have much larger populations than Denver.

While this is positive news, what is even more remarkable is what is happening in the other, smaller cities along the Front Range.

Anytime job growth exceeds 2.0% per year, it is a sign of a very healthy economy.

Here is what the other Cities have seen in terms of job growth over the last 12 months.

• Fort Collins 2.6%

• Greeley 2.5

• Colorado Springs 1.9%

Posted on November 22, 2019 at 5:26 pm
Windermere Windsor | Category: Blog, Fun Facts, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere real estate agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy picked up, adding 64,900 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months — a growth rate of 2.4%. Over the past three months, the state added an impressive 28,300 new jobs.

In August, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%, down from 3.4% a year ago. Unemployment rates in all the counties contained in this report were lower than a year ago. It is fair to say that all markets are now at full employment.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the third quarter of 2019, 17,562 homes sold. This is an increase of 5.1% compared to the third quarter of 2018 but 1.6% lower than the second quarter (which can be attributed to seasonality). Pending sales — a sign of future closings —rose 9.7%, suggesting that closings in the final quarter of 2019 are likely to show further improvement.
  • Seven counties contained in this report saw sales growth, while four saw sales activity drop. I am not concerned about this because all the markets that experienced slowing are relatively small and, therefore, subject to significant swings.
  • I was pleased to see an ongoing increase in the number of homes for sale (+16.9%), which means home buyers have more choice and feel less urgency.
  • Inventory levels are moving higher, and demand for housing appears to be quite strong. As I predicted last quarter, home sales rose in the third quarter compared to a year ago.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, with the average home price in the region rising 3.8% year-over-year to $477,776.
  • Interest rates are at very competitive levels and are likely to remain below 4% for the balance of the year. As a result, prices will continue to rise but at a more modest pace.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 7.8%. We also saw strong growth in Weld County, which rose 7.4%. Home prices dropped in Clear Creek County, but, as mentioned earlier, this is a small market so I don’t believe this is indicative of an ongoing trend.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets and this will act as a modest headwind to ongoing price growth.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose seven days compared to the third quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home rose in all counties compared to the third quarter of 2018.
  • It took an average of 30 days to sell a home in the region — an increase of 1 day compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • The Colorado housing market is still performing well, and the modest increase in the length of time it took to sell a home is a function of greater choice in homes for sale and buyers taking a little longer to choose a home.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the third quarter of 2019, I continue the trend I started last summer and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I continue to closely monitor listing activity to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth. However, the trend for 2019 will continue to be a move toward a more balanced market.

 

 

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Posted on October 25, 2019 at 4:05 pm
Windermere Windsor | Category: Economics 101, Economy, Market News, Market Update, Quarterly Report | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Big Bounce

Seventy-five major metro markets have seen home prices bounce back to above their pre-recession peaks.

Metro Denver has seen the biggest bounce with home values 91% above its previous high in 2007 , according to the Home Price Recovery Index from HSH.com.

“Aside from routinely strong home price appreciation, it’s important to know that the Denver metro’s housing ‘bust’ in 2008 was relatively short and shallow,” said Keith Gumbinger, the report’s author.

The peak-to-trough for home values was only three years long and the total decline in value was just under 8 percent in Metro Denver, he said.

By contrast, a half-dozen large metros have seen home prices more than double from their lows and still not reach the old highs. On that list are Las Vegas, Sacramento, Calif, and Cape Coral, Fla.

Posted on September 27, 2019 at 5:04 pm
Windermere Windsor | Category: Blog, Fun Facts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Question of the Day

As we are helping people understand their new property assessments and putting together information so that they may protest their new valuation, here is the most common question we hear…

Did my property really go up that much?

Here are some stats that will help you answer that question.

First, you need to know that property assessments are done by the County every two years. So, as you look at how much your property increased in value according to the County, keep in mind that this increase is over a two-year period.

 

Next, it will help you to know how much our markets increased, on average, over the last two years. This data comes from our most trusted source, the Federal Housing Finance Authority.

Two Year Appreciation:

• Metro Denver = 18.65%
• Larimer County = 17.60%
• Weld County = 22.31%
• Boulder County = 16.28%


If you have questions about your new valuation or how to protest your property’s assessment, we would be happy to help. Just reach out and let us know.

 

Posted on May 17, 2019 at 5:34 pm
Windermere Windsor | Category: Blog, Fun Facts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Condo Cyclone

 

While the “Bomb Cyclone” closed roads and schools over the last two days, the “Condo Cyclone” is opening new opportunities for first-time buyers.

What’s the “Condo Cyclone” you ask. It’s the proliferation of multi-family inventory that has come on the market up and down the Front Range.

 

Compared to last year, multi-family inventory which includes town-homes and condominiums, has increased…

• 79% in Metro Denver
• 34% in Larimer County
• 45% in Weld County

This is terrific news for the market overall, as inventory has been unusually low for several months. It’s especially terrific news for first-time buyers who need this type of product as a stepping stone to home ownership.

What we notice is a $170,000 to $130,000 difference in average price between a single-family home and a multi-family home in Front Range markets.

Specifically, here’s the spread between multi-family and single-family average price:

• $349,801 vs. $512,312 in Metro Denver
• $312,493 vs. $469,294 in Larimer County
• $237,645 vs. $370,027 in Weld County

So as we dig out from the “Bomb Cyclone” we can be happy for the “Condo Cyclone” which brings more affordability and opportunity to our markets!

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• Want to see the latest market trends? 
• Curious to see the process of buying or selling a home? 
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• Be sure to visit www.ColoradoLivingBlog.com

Posted on March 15, 2019 at 5:04 pm
Windermere Windsor | Category: Blog, Fun Facts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,