BlogColorado Real EstateFun FactsMarket News June 11, 2021

Colorado Ranking

Here’s the latest from one of our favorite data sources – the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA).

They track home prices across the Country and produce a quarterly Home Price Index report.

It is not uncommon to find Colorado near the top of the list for year over year price growth.

The latest report has us ranked 13th with only a 13% year over year increase (said with sarcasm).

Idaho is first with a whopping 24% increase. Utah is second at 19%.

Here is our interpretation of these numbers…

Colorado has a history of strong, steady price growth instead of booms and busts.

Our market does not take the big, wild swings in prices that other markets sometimes do.

The fact that Colorado is not at the very top of the list right now is actually good news to us.

We know that our clients appreciate a market that is more steady instead of one that can feel like a rollercoaster.

BlogBuyers & SellersColorado HousingFor Buyers & SellersHousing TrendsMarket NewsMarket Update April 28, 2021

Q1 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Following the decline in employment last winter, Colorado has started to add jobs back into its economy. The latest data shows that the state has now recovered more than 219,000 of the 376,000+ jobs that were lost due to COVID-19. This is certainly positive, but there is a long way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. Denver and Fort Collins continue to have the greatest improvement in employment, but all markets show job levels well below pre-pandemic levels. With total employment levels rising, the unemployment rate stands at 6.6%, down from the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 5.6% in Fort Collins and Boulder to a high of 6.7% in Greeley. COVID-19 infection rates have started to increase again, and this has the potential to negatively impact the job market. I am hopeful that the state will not be forced to pull back reopening, but this is certainly not assured.

COLORADO HOME SALES

❱ 2021 started off on a bit of a sour note, with total sales down 1.2% compared to the same period in 2020. Sales were 29.2% lower than in the final quarter of 2020 as 8,645 homes sold.

❱ Sales were higher in four of the counties contained in this report, were essentially flat in one, and dropped in seven. It was pleasing to see significant sales growth in the large counties of Denver and Adams.

❱ Another positive was that pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, were 4.8% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 5% higher than a year ago.

❱ The disappointing number of home sales overall can primarily be attributed to the woeful lack of inventory. Listings in the quarter were down more than 61% year over year and were 40.6% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2020.

 

COLORADO HOME PRICES

❱ Prices continue to appreciate at a very rapid pace, with the average sale price up 16.5% year over year, to an average of $556,100. Home prices were also 4.4% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ Buyers appear to be out in force, and this demand—in concert with very low levels of inventory—continues to heat the market.

❱ Prices rose over last year across all markets covered by this report, with the exception of the very small Gilpin County. All other counties saw sizeable gains and the trend of double-digit price growth continued unabated.

❱ Affordability levels are becoming a greater concern as prices rise at a far faster pace than wages. Even though mortgage rates have started to rise, they haven’t yet reached the level needed to take some of the heat out of the market.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 20 days compared to the first quarter of 2020.

❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ It took an average of 25 days to sell a home in the region, down one day from the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ The Colorado housing market remains very tight, as demonstrated by the fact that it took less than a month for homes to sell in all but two counties.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The relatively low level of home sales is not a surprise given how few choices there are for buyers. Sellers are certainly benefitting from strong demand, as demonstrated by the significant price growth. I maintain my belief that there will be an increase in inventory as we move through the year, but it is highly unlikely that we will see a balanced market in 2021.

Given these factors, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of sellers, as demand is likely to continue to exceed supply.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

BlogBuyers & SellersColorado HousingEconomyMarket NewsMarket UpdateNorthern Colorado Real EstateWindermere Real Estate February 3, 2021

Q4 2020 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The job recovery that appeared to be firmly in place in the summer has started to wane. Though Colorado has recovered more than 209,000 of the jobs lost due to COVID-19, employment levels remain almost 210,000 below the level seen last February. Even with employment growth stalling, the unemployment rate stands at a relatively respectable 6.4%, down from a peak of 12.2%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 5.4% in Boulder to a high of 6.9% in Greeley. Rising COVID-19 infection rates continue to impact the job recovery, and I do not see much in the way of palpable improvement until a vaccine becomes freely available, likely in the second half of this year.

COLORADO HOME SALES

❱ In the final quarter of 2020, 12,207 homes sold. This represents an increase of 21.8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, but 19% lower than in the third quarter. I am not concerned, though, because seasonal influences tend to impact sales in the winter.

❱ Sales rose in all markets other than El Paso compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. I believe sales are only limited by the number of homes on the market.

❱ Inventory levels remain well below what I would like to see. The average number of homes on the market in the fourth quarter was down 55% from the same period in 2019.

❱ Pending sales were 34% lower compared to the third quarter. Again, seasonality and a lack of homes to buy impact this figure. Pending sales are still 13% higher than a year ago.

Colorado Counties Graph

COLORADO HOME PRICES

Price appreciation in various Colorado counties.

❱ Home prices rose significantly in the fourth quarter, with the average price increasing 13.7% year-over-year to $532,492. Prices were up 1.8% compared to the third quarter of this year.

❱ Interest rates are unlikely to drop much further and this will lead price growth to slow as we move through 2021.

❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report, with significant appreciation in Clear Creek, Gilpin, Park, and El Paso counties. Every county but Arapahoe saw double-digit price gains.

❱ Affordability in many Colorado markets remains a concern as prices continue to rise at well-above-average rates. That said, I anticipate we will see price growth moderate in 2021.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices in various Colorado counties.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 15 days compared to the final quarter of 2019.

❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

❱ It took an average of 26 days to sell a home in the region, down 3 days compared to the third quarter of 2020.

❱ The Colorado housing market continues to demonstrate solid demand, and buyers are clearly competitive as suggested by the short length of time it is taking to sell a home.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various Colorado counties

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Home sales and prices are significantly higher than a year ago, and demand for housing is very much in place. Naturally, this favors home sellers who are still in control of the market. I do expect to see some improvement in listing activity this year, which, in concert with modestly rising interest rates, will likely start to take some of the steam out of the market. However, any moderation in the market has yet to appear. Even given the possible headwinds mentioned above, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of sellers, as demand is likely to exceed supply for the time being.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

BlogFun FactsHousing TrendsWindermere Real Estate January 22, 2021

Bubble Talk

A hot topic of conversation these days is the prospect of another real estate bubble.  People wonder if prices can continue at their current pace and some fear a repeat of 2008.

 

Because we get asked about this topic so often from our clients, we thought it would make sense to ask our in-house expert, Matthew Gardner.

 

Matthew is our Chief Economist and was our Keynote Speaker at the Windermere Annual Market Forecast.

 

During the Forecast presentation, he discussed the bubble concerns and laid out his reasons why he sees no potential of prices bursting along the Front Range.

 

Quite the opposite actually, he sees that prices will continue to go up, but just not as fast as they have been.

 

His reasons for no bubble bursting are as follows:

  • Record-low inventory – prices cannot crash without a glut of supply on the market
  • Highly-qualified buyers – lending guidelines are more stringent today than they have been in our lifetime
  • Growing jobs – job growth in Colorado is projected to far outpace the national average this coming year

So, we project a healthy real estate market in 2021.

To see a replay of the Forecast presentation, simply reach out to us, we would be happy to send you the recording.

blowing bubbles

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BlogEconomics 101Housing TrendsMarket NewsMarket Update October 28, 2020

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

Housing Market

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

What a difference a quarter makes! Following the massive job losses Colorado experienced starting in February—the state shed over 342,000 positions between February and April—the turnaround has been palpable. Through August, Colorado has recovered 178,000 of the jobs lost due to COVID-19, adding 107,500 jobs over the past three months, an increase of 4.2%. All regions saw a significant number of jobs returning. The most prominent was in the Denver metropolitan service area (MSA), where 78,800 jobs returned in the quarter.

Although employment in all markets is recovering, there is still a way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. The recovery in jobs has naturally led the unemployment rate to drop: the state is now at a respectable 6.7%, down from a peak of 12.2%. Regionally, all areas continue to see their unemployment rates contract. I would note that the Fort Collins and Boulder MSA unemployment rates are now below 6%. Cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, which is troubling, but rising rates have only slowed—not stopped—the economic recovery. Moreover, it has had no noticeable impact on the state’s housing market.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the third quarter of 2020, 15,065 homes sold. This represents an increase of 20.4% over the third quarter of 2019, and a remarkable 52.7% increase over the second quarter of this year.
  • Home sales rose in all markets other than El Paso compared to the second quarter of 2019. I believe sales are only limited by the number of homes on the market.
  • Inventory levels remain remarkably low, with the average number of homes for sale down 44.5% from the same period in 2019. Listing activity was 17.8% lower than in the second quarter of 2020.
  • Even given the relative lack of inventory, pending sales rose 17.8% from the second quarter, suggesting that closings for the final quarter of the year will be positive.

 

HOME PRICES

  • After taking a pause in the second quarter, home prices rose significantly in the third quarter, with prices up 11.9% year-over-year to an average of $523,193. Prices were up 7.4% compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • Interest rates have been dropping. Although I do not see there being room for them to drop much further, they are unlikely to rise significantly. This is allowing prices to rise at above-average rates.
  • Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report. El Paso, Clear Creek, and Gilpin counties saw significant price appreciation. All but four counties saw double-digit price gains.
  • Affordability in many Colorado markets remains a concern, as prices are rising at a faster pace than mortgage rates have been dropping.

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped one day compared to the third quarter of 2019.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in nine counties, remained static in two, and rose in one compared to the third quarter of 2019.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home in the region.
  • The Colorado housing market continues to demonstrate solid demand, and the short length of time it takes to sell a home suggests buyers are competing fiercely for available inventory.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Demand for housing is significant, and sales activity is only limited by the lack of available homes to buy. Prices are rising on the back of very competitive mortgage rates and a job market in recovery. I suggested in my second-quarter report that the area would experience a “brisk summer housing market” and my forecast was accurate. As such, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of home sellers.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Colorado HousingEconomics 101 October 2, 2020

Stat of the Month

Wooden Bridge Through Autumn Woods

We just completed a review of the September numbers in our market.

Here is the one number that is standing out to us – average price.

Prices are way up over last year.  Here are the specific average price increases in each of our markets compared to September 2019:

  • Metro Denver = 13.2%
  • Larimer County = 16.9%
  • Weld County = 7.4%

This change in prices has of course generated questions from our clients.

To help our clients answer questions about prices and other real estate topics, we have set up a private online event with our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

The event is set for Tuesday from 9:00 to 10:00.

Simply reach out to any Windermere broker to receive your registration link.

Matthew will be addressing these questions as well as many others:

  • What effect will the election have on the economy and on real estate?
  • How long can interest rates stay this low?
  • Can prices keep appreciating at their current pace?

This online event is for the clients and friends of Windermere.  If you would like to register, please connect with your Windermere broker.

BlogFun FactsWindermere Real Estate August 28, 2020

Price Report

The Federal Housing Finance Authority just released their most recent quarterly report which tracks home price appreciation in the top 100 metropolitan areas in the U.S. plus appreciation in individual states.

 

Some significant findings from the report:

 

House prices have risen for 36 consecutive quarters, or since September 2011.

 

House prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the second quarters of 2019 and 2020.

 

The top five areas for annual appreciation were:

1) Idaho 10.8%

2) Arizona 9.1%

3) Washington 8.6%

4) Utah 8.1%

5) New Mexico 7.7%.

 

Idaho has been the leading state for the last 7 quarters.

 

Colorado showed annual appreciation of 4.4%.

 

The areas showing the lowest annual appreciation were:

1) West Virginia 1.1%

2) North Dakota 1.1%

3) District of Columbia 1.4%

4) Illinois 2.5%

5) Alaska 2.6%.

 

House prices rose in 99 of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. over the last four quarters.

 

Annual price increases were greatest in Honolulu, HI, where prices increased by 11.7%.

 

Prices were weakest in San Francisco, where they decreased by 0.3%.

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BlogFun FactsWindermere Real Estate August 7, 2020

Rebound

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index tracks appreciation in the 20 largest real estate markets across the U.S.

 

Their most recent quarterly report was just released this week.

 

Metro Denver prices are up over last year by 3.89% which is just slightly higher than the average of the 20 markets.

 

It is interesting to see how the 20 locations have performed since the pre-Great Recession housing peak.

 

Turns out that Denver has done the best out of all the markets.

 

Since 2008, Denver home prices have appreciated 64.9%.  Second-best is Dallas at 55.5% and Seattle is third at 41.2%.

 

Believe it or not, there are markets where average home prices have still not returned to their 2008 levels.

 

Las Vegas is 14.5% below 2008 and Chicago is 12.8% below.

 

These numbers are another indicator of the long-term health and performance of the Front Range market.

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Fun FactsWindermere Real Estate February 14, 2020

Lovely Stats

In honor of Valentine’s Day, here are some Northern Colorado stats we think you will love:

  • Prices are up 3.5% compared to last year
  • Inventory is up 10% which means there is more selection for buyers
  • We just had the most active January in terms of closings in over 10 years
  • Well over 13,000 residential properties representing $5.4 Billion of volume has sold in the last 12 months

If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.

ColoradomarketMarket NewsMarket Update June 17, 2019

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

Posted in Colorado Real Estate Market Update by Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate 

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy continues to grow with the addition of 44,800 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months. This represents a reasonable growth rate of 1.7%. As stated in last quarter’s Gardner Report, we continue to see a modest slowdown in employment gains, but that’s to be expected at this stage of the business cycle. I predict that employment growth in Colorado will pick back up as we move through the year, adding a total of 70,000 new jobs in 2019, which represents a growth rate of 2.6%.

In February, the state unemployment rate was 3.7%, up from 2.9% a year ago. The increase is essentially due to labor force growth, which rose by more than 84,000 people over the past year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report haven’t moved much in the past year, but Boulder saw a modest drop (2.7%), and the balance of the state either remained at the same level as a year ago or rose very modestly.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the first quarter of 2019, 11,164 homes sold — a drop of 3% compared to the first quarter of 2018 and down 13.5% from the fourth quarter of last year. Pending sales in the quarter were a mixed bag. Five counties saw an increase, but five showed signs of slowing.
  • The only market that had sales growth was Adams, which rose 4.9%. The rest of the counties contained in this report saw sales decline, with a significant drop in the small Park County area.
  • I believe the drop in the number of home sales is partially due to the significant increase in listings (+45.6%), which has given would-be home buyers more choice and less need to act quickly.
  • As mentioned above, inventory growth in the quarter was significant, but I continue to believe that the market will see sales rise. I expect the second half of the year to perform better than the first.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, but the rate of growth is tapering. The average home price in the region rose just 2.1% year-over-year to $456,243. Home prices were .3% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • I anticipate that the drop in interest rates early in the year will likely get more buyers off the fence and this will allow prices to rise.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 21.9%. We still attribute this rapid increase to it being a small market. Only Clear Creek County experienced a drop in average home price. Similar to Park County, this is due to it being a very small market, making it more prone to significant swings.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets but that may be offset by the drop in interest rates.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado rose five days compared to the first quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in two counties — Gilpin and Park — compared to the first quarter of 2018. The rest of the counties in this report saw days-on-market rise modestly with the exception of the small Clear Creek market, which rose by 26 days.
  • In the first quarter of 2019, it took an average of 42 days to sell a home in the region, an increase of four days compared to the final quarter of 2018.
  • Job growth drives housing demand, but buyers are faced with more choice and are far less frantic than they were over the past few years. That said, I anticipate the late spring will bring more activity and sales.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the first quarter of 2019, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I am watching listing activity closely to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth; however, the trend for 2019 will continue towards a more balanced market.

 

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.