Forecast Takeaways
Here are some of the big takeaways from our annual Market Forecast with Economist Matthew Gardner:
- Interest rates will continue to trend down during the year and reach 6.08% by the end of 2024.
- Home prices will have another year of modest gains increasing 2.0% to 2.5% in Northern Colorado
- 53% of homeowners in Larimer County and 38% of homeowners in Weld County are “Equity Rich” meaning that they have at least 50% equity in their homes.
- Inventory levels will increase in 2024 but will remain below normal which protects prices from any sort of major decline
To receive a copy of the full slide deck from the Forecast, feel free to reach out to us!
$44 Trillion
Have you ever wondered how much all of the residential real estate in the U.S. is worth?
It’s $44.5 trillion.
That’s 44 with 12 zeroes after it.
This data comes from the Federal Reserve’s Quarterly “Z.1” report.
The total valuation increased by $2.4 Trillion over the last quarter and is essentially flat compared to one year ago.
In total, liabilities on residential properties (mortgages, equity loans, etc.) is $12.9 trillion.
So, collectively, residential property owners in the U.S. have a 71% equity share and owe 29% of the value.
With a “T”
One of the reasons we are so confident about the long-term health of the market is because of the equity that exists in peoples’ homes today.
Because there is so much equity, there are very few homeowners who are ‘underwater’ with a loan that is more than the actual value of the property.
According to the latest ‘Homeowner Equity Insights’ report from CoreLogic, only 2.3% of all homes are ‘underwater’ with negative equity.
To put that in perspective, in the fourth quarter of 2009, 26% of all mortgaged properties had negative equity.
Nationally, homeowner equity has increased by $2.9 Trillion during the last 12 months (that’s Trillion with a ‘T’)!
Locally, only 1.4% of Colorado mortgage holders have negative equity, which is one of the lowest rates in the Country.
What this all means is very, very few distressed sales and overall health in the real estate market.
Enormous Equity
Hot off the press is the Core Logic Homeowner Equity Report. This is their quarterly look at what is happening with homeowners’ equity across the country.
Here are the staggering numbers coming out of their research:
- Collectively, U.S. homeowners with mortgages have realized a $1.5 Trillion gain in equity over the last 12 months.
- Only 2.8% of all mortgaged properties have negative equity meaning the home is worth less than the loan amount.
- In Colorado, just 2.5% of homeowners have negative equity. For comparison, the percentage in Louisiana is 10.7%.
This research is one of many reasons why we don’t see any sort of impending housing crisis like we experienced in 2009. In the fourth quarter of 2009 for instance, 26% of all homeowners had negative equity.
Million Plussing
The luxury market is very active right now. Buyers in the high-end are taking advantage of low interest rates and the equity they have built in their prior homes.
Closings of million-plus single family homes are up significantly along the Front Range.
When compared to this same time last year, sales of properties in this price range are up:
- 87% in Metro Denver
- 150% in Larimer County
- 67% in Weld County
Windermere Real Estate in Colorado recently hosted a private online event for our clients with our very own Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We would be happy to send you the recording if you would like.
Bubble Burst
Every so often we will hear a concern that another housing bubble is forming.
To help answer that question it’s valuable to look at the reasons that caused the last one.
There were three main drivers of the bubble that burst in 2008:
- Easy Credit – loans were very easy to attain
- Over-Leverage – people were using their homes at ATM’s
- Over-Supply – too many new homes were being built
Now, let’s compare that to today:
- Stricter Credit – the average home buyer today has a FICO score of 755
- High Equity – collectively, U.S. homeowners have $19 Trillion of equity in their homes and collective mortgage debt has not increased for 13 years
- Under-Supply – today we are building only two-thirds of the new homes being built in 2004 yet the population is much higher
Given this healthy information, we are not concerned about another bubble forming today.
If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.
Equity Insights
The real estate research firm Core Logic just produced their latest Homeowner Equity Insights report.
Some interesting tidbits:
· 63% of all properties nationally have a mortgage
· Homeowners with mortgages collectively realized a $428 billion rise in equity over last year, an increase of 4.8%
· Only 3.8% of all mortgaged properties have negative equity (where the loan is greater than the value of the home)
· 10 years ago 26% of all mortgaged properties had negative equity
If you want to see even more insights about the Colorado market so that you can make really good decisions about your real estate, you are welcome to watch this complimentary webinar, just click HERE.