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MOI is Still LOW
Despite decreased buyer activity driven by normal seasonal patterns plus higher interest rates, the key stat of Months of Inventory continues to stay relatively low.
Months of Inventory (MOI) is the simple measurement of how long it would take to sell the current inventory of homes for sale at the current pace of sales.
Along the Front Range, this stat ranges from roughly 2 ½ months to just over 3. A market is considered ‘balanced’ when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory for sale.
Here are the specific numbers for Front Range markets:
Larimer County = 3.1 Months
Weld County = 2.7 Months
Metro Denver = 2.4 Months
Under 100
For the first time in a long time, the sale to list price ratio is below 100%.
This statistic measures the final sales price versus the listing price.
During the super-active market of the last 24 months, this number averaged over 100%.
This was a result of multiple offers and bidding wars which caused buyers to offer more than list price.
Now, the sale to list price ratio has dropped to below 100% as a result of a more balanced market.
These are the specific numbers in each of our markets:
Larimer County = 98%
Weld County = 99%
Metro Denver = 97%
Half A Month
There is half of a month of inventory on the market. In other words, at the current pace of sales, it would take just two weeks to sell all of the homes currently listed for sale along the Front Range.
By definition, a market is balanced when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory. Anything less than that is a seller’s market.
The current inventory levels give us confidence about the future of price growth along the Front Range.
While we expect the pace of price appreciation to slow, the low supply of properties insulates us against any sort of price decline.
More Homes Needed
The market is in short supply.
More homes are needed to fulfill the need to buyer demand.
Compared to exactly one year ago, the supply of homes is down:
- 32.6% in Metro Denver
- 25.1% in Northern Colorado
An interesting and useful measurement we track is months of inventory. This stat tells how long it would take to sell all of the homes currently for sale at the current pace of sales.
Of course, months of supply can vary greatly by price range and location. However, this stat does a good job of explaining the overall state of the market.
Specifically, months of supply tells us if the market is in balance.
A ‘balanced’ market is when there is 4 to 6 months of supply. A buyers market occurs when the stat is higher than this range. A sellers market occurs when it is lower.
The months of supply looks like this in our market:
- 1.0 months in Metro Denver
- 1.3 months in Northern Colorado
So, the market overall is significantly under-supplied and more homes are needed to meet demand.
How’s 2019?
A lot of our clients are asking how 2019 is starting off.
Here’s one thing we notice…
There are more homes to choose from, which is great news for buyers.
In January alone 4,821 homes came on the market in Metro Denver.
That is a 14% increase compared to one year ago.
At our annual Market Forecast, we predicted a more balanced market in 2019, so far it looks like we are trending that way.
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Below is the recap of our Denver Annual Market Forecast!
